SHARE ON: |
| |
| |
 |
 |
|
|
The current high trend of COVID-19 patients in intensive care could continue into 2022 without the addition of any further public health orders, according to modelling provided by the Saskatchewan Health Authority (SHA).
The health authority said the province is at an “unsustainable” level in intensive care units at the moment – due to the high number of hospitalizations and their effect on other medical procedures.
Dr. Saqib Shahab, the province’s chief medical health officer, said a baseline level of 40 COVID-19 hospitalizations and 10 in intensive care is “sustainable” and allows for the health care system to provide care normally.
As of Wednesday, there are 323 people in hospital related to COVID-19, including 82 in intensive care.
“Once you start crossing that you reach the other line, which is the current unsustainable census and other services start getting delayed, and of course unfortunately now patients are transferred out of the province,” Dr. Shahab said.
The modelling provided scenarios that show the estimated effects of varying levels of decreased population mixing, along with booster shots for residents 60 years and older.
Based on current behaviours and COVID-19 restrictions, the modelling suggests hospitalizations could surge through the end of the year and continue into the second quarter of 2022.
The second modelling scenario projects the provinces trajectory based on the current measures in and behaviours in place.
“While we see the benefits of booster doses, given today and over the next two three months, we see the benefits of that into February, March, but that is not enough to protect the acute care system,” he said.
Scenario five – the option with the most significant decline in projected ICU patients – includes a 28 day reduction in population mixing, which could be achieved through individual behaviour or public health orders and the administration of booster shots to those 60 years and older.
Shahab urged residents to consider reducing their contacts and continue to be vigilant about mask use and vaccination status in social situations.
“Otherwise, unfortunately, we could well see a surge in November and December,” Shahab said. “There’s no way, I think, that any health system could tolerate 250 people in ICU.”
Most scenarios, with a decrease in how much people are in contact with each other and the administration of booster shots show a return to a “sustainable” ICU level around March 1, 2022.
“If we can really push our case numbers down, it will still take several weeks for the ICU and hospital census to come down. But then if we can really see that coming down over November, December, that makes for a safe holiday season and lower number of cases into the new year,” Shahab said.
The province is projecting approximately 20,000 surgeries and other procedures will be cancelled, due to stress on the health care system. Under a best case scenario where the current COVID-19 situation is the peak, case loads begin to decrease and it only takes three months to bring down cases, Saskatchewan will not be back to “normal” until the start of 2022 at the earliest, according to the SHA.
While Shahab provided his recommendations for the public to reduce social contacts and focusing on mask use and physical distancing, he said it would be up to the provincial government to share what formal recommendations he has made about further restrictions.
The advice that I give to the public is based on what I’m seeing based on the epidemiology. Advice that I give to the government goes to cabinet through the Minister of Health, [Provincial Emergency Operations Centre] and executive council,” Shahab said. “So it is up to cabinet to divulge what advice I give or don’t give, and I need to be very clear about that.”
|
 |
|
 |
|
 |
|
 |
4 pm |
| 23 ℃ |
| BROKEN CLOUDS |
WIND: SE 8 KM/H
GUSTING TO 9 KM/H |
|
|
|
5 pm |
| 24 ℃ |
| BROKEN CLOUDS |
WIND: ESE 16 KM/H
GUSTING TO 13 KM/H |
|
|
|
6 pm |
| 22 ℃ |
| BROKEN CLOUDS |
WIND: ESE 19 KM/H
GUSTING TO 30 KM/H |
|
|
|
7 pm |
| 20 ℃ |
| BROKEN CLOUDS |
WIND: ESE 15 KM/H
GUSTING TO 28 KM/H |
|
|
 |
8 pm |
| 19 ℃ |
| LIGHT RAIN |
WIND: ESE 18 KM/H
GUSTING TO 31 KM/H |
|
|
|
9 pm |
| 17 ℃ |
| LIGHT RAIN |
WIND: SE 13 KM/H
GUSTING TO 25 KM/H |
|
|
 |
10 pm |
| 15 ℃ |
| OVERCAST CLOUDS |
WIND: E 9 KM/H
GUSTING TO 17 KM/H |
|
|
 |
11 pm |
| 15 ℃ |
| LIGHT RAIN |
WIND: ESE 10 KM/H
GUSTING TO 21 KM/H |
|
|
|
|
TODAY |
HIGH OF 24 ℃
LOW OF 13 ℃ |
| LIGHT RAIN |
|
|
|
TUESDAY |
HIGH OF 15 ℃
LOW OF 9 ℃ |
| LIGHT RAIN |
|
|
|
WEDNESDAY |
HIGH OF 19 ℃
LOW OF 13 ℃ |
| MODERATE RAIN |
|
|
|
THURSDAY |
HIGH OF 27 ℃
LOW OF 13 ℃ |
| HEAVY INTENSITY RAIN |
|
|
|
FRIDAY |
HIGH OF 28 ℃
LOW OF 15 ℃ |
| HEAVY INTENSITY RAIN |
|
|
|
SATURDAY |
HIGH OF 24 ℃
LOW OF 15 ℃ |
| LIGHT RAIN |
|
|
 |
SUNDAY |
HIGH OF 25 ℃
LOW OF 15 ℃ |
| CLEAR SKY |
|
|
 |
MONDAY |
HIGH OF 26 ℃
LOW OF 14 ℃ |
| FEW CLOUDS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
 |
THOMAS RHETT
SMALL TOWN GIRLS
04:40 PM |
|
 |
CHRIS YOUNG
TIL THE LAST ONE DIES
04:37 PM |
|
 |
BROOKE EDEN
OUTLAW LOVE
04:33 PM |
|
 |
LUKE COMBS
WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET
04:30 PM |
|
 |
JUSTIN MOORE
GLAD TO BE HERE
04:28 PM |
|
 |
THE RAILERS
1159 CENTRAL STANDARD TIME
04:24 PM |
|
 |
MORGAN WALLEN
ME TO ME
04:22 PM |
|
 |
RILEY GREEN
I JUST NEED YOU
04:18 PM |
|
 |
JAKE OWEN
DRINK ALL DAY
04:12 PM |
|
 |
LOCASH
GET TO BE THAT GUY
04:09 PM |
|
 
 |
